With some movies premiering at Sundance as early as January, some award seasons start before the previous one has even wrapped up. That said, all bets are usually off until the autumn season, when the film festivals in Toronto, Venice, Telluride and New York unleash their slates of prestige projects.
Aside from one very notable movie, this year is largely no different—almost all of the movies we will mention below premiered in the last few weeks, lapping up reviews and standing ovations to solidify their place on the awards circuit. Having only seen a handful of these titles, I’m making some educated guesses here, but even at the early stage, the main contenders already look solid.
Read on to discover more, and use the guide below to keep track of when they'll be available on platforms like BBC iPlayer, Netflix, Prime Video and elsewhere.
Best Picture 2026 Contenders
With the Oscars set for March 15 2026, the frontrunners for the major prizes have already stuck their noses out in front.
The strongest contender, at the time of writing, is Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, a movie that Warner Bros decided not to premiere at any festival. Even before its release in late September worldwide, early reviews have begun calling it not just the best movie of the year, but possibly one of the best of the decade. Though loosely based on Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, the story is set in the present day (the first Anderson movie to do so since Punch Drunk Love) and features Leonardo DiCaprio as a burnt-out revolutionary still clinging to his own fading rebellion. For fans of the director’s Inherent Vice, or similar paranoia-tinged, rabbit-hole movies, like Under the Silver Lake, it looks like an absolute must-see.
Anderson’s main contender looks to be Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet, a more classical, prestige tearjerker in the vein of Remains of the Day or Sense and Sensibility. Based on Maggie O’Farrell’s bestseller and starring the Irish actors Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley as William and Agnes Shakespeare, the story follows the Shakespeares as they attempt to deal with the death of their 11-year-old son. Unlike Anderson, Zhao has been behind a Best Picture win before, with Nomadland, but also the epic misfire of Eternals. The question will be whether the Academy chooses to go for the more familiar Hamnet or Anderson’s contemporary wildcard.
Best Actress 2026 Contenders
As usual, the main contenders in the Best Picture bracket will likely influence many of the other categories. This is good news for fans of Jessie Buckley, a beloved actress whose nomination for The Lost Daughter remains her only recognition from the Academy so far.
A slightly different narrative suggests that Renate Reinsve has a chance. The Norwegian was unlucky not to be nominated for The Worst Person in the World in 2022, and her latest performance, in Worst Person director Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, a huge hit in Cannes, is significantly less comedic, which, I’m sad to say, tends to mean more awards.
Indeed, it’s looking like a good year for the indies in general, with Rose Byrne’s remarkable turn as a woman losing her mind with postpartum depression in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You and Emma Stone’s typically Lanthimos-y turn in Bugonia rounding out the category. Just don’t sleep on Cynthia Erivo showing up with Wicked: For Good—albeit with fewer recognisable songs.
Best Actor 2026 Contenders
For the first time in a while, the Best Actor race is looking the tastier of the two. A big question will be whether Paul Mescal will run for Supporting Actor for Hamnet, which seems likely given the wealth of competition. If Neon decides to run him, the Irish actor will be going up against DiCaprio for One Battle—though I feel a second Leo win seems similarly unlikely.
The smart money will be on two stars from two separate Safdie Brothers movies: Timothée Chalamet (who was desperately unlucky not to win last year for A Complete Unknown) for Josh’s Marty Supreme and Dwayne Johnson (who has his own potent comeback narrative) for Benny’s The Smashing Machine—and if you’re a fan of the Safdie’s Uncut Gems or Good Time, we highly recommend putting both those movies on your radar.
The fourth contender is Jeremy Allen White, whose upcoming performance as Bruce Springsteen in Deliver Me From Nowhere is sure to garner a similar following to A Complete Unknown. I think it would feel particularly cruel if Chalamet were to lose to a musical biopic.
Best Supporting Actress 2026 Contenders
Here’s where things start to get a little freaky. Only three people in history have been nominated twice for playing the same fictional character: Al Pacino as Michael Corleone (Godfather I and II), Sly Stallone as Rocky Balboa (in Rocky and Creed) and Paul Newman as Eddie Felson (The Hustler and Colour of Money), and of those, only Newman won (at the second attempt). Next year, much to the delight of Wicked fans everywhere, that list will almost double if Erivo again gets the nod for Best Actress (for Elphaba) and Ariana Grande does the same (for Glinda) in Supporting.
Unlike Erivo, however, Grande has as good a shot as anyone of winning. She will face stiff competition, however, from Teyana Taylor, who gives an absolute dynamite performance in One Battle After Another, albeit with very limited screen time (I haven’t been able to find a number for this, but I’m guessing it would be in the region of shortest ever, were she to win). Emily Blunt could also feature for The Smashing Machine, as could Taylor’s young co-star, Chase Infiniti; however, I must say I’ve had a feeling about Elle Fanning’s remarkable turn in Sentimental Value ever since the movie played in Cannes. Whatever the case, this’ll be a tight one.
Best Supporting Actor 2026 Contenders
Again, this is a hard race to call. Mescal and Penn will probably both feature for Hamnet and One Battle, with a whole chasing pack of actors close behind them. But again, if I had to guess, I’d keep an eye on Sentimental Value. This is the kind of moving, multigenerational family drama that Oscar voters love (think Minari), and particularly in Stellan Skarsgård’s performance, the Academy will eye an opportunity to celebrate the legendary actor’s career.
Outside of that, it’s anyone’s guess—but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Adam Sandler finally pick up a long overdue nomination for Jay Kelly, a Noah Baumbach movie that feels like a return to Marriage Story form.
Best Original Screenplay 2026 Contenders
Unless there’s an all-out sweep (which is always possible), Best Original Screenplay tends to go to a beloved movie that proved a little too something for recognition in the biggest categories. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Baumbach (Jay Kelly) are certainly in contention. A more likely winner, though, is Black Panther director Ryan Coogler for Sinners—and if you’ve yet to see it, imagine what From Dusk Till Dawn would be like if it were about the history of blues music and featured deranged Irish vampires.
Coogler’s movie looks set to pick up a lot of nominations but, outside the technical categories, risks going home empty-handed. A similar narrative could follow Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value, a beautifully written movie that will probably just miss out in the biggest races. I see this one coming down to the wire.
Best Adapted Screenplay 2026 Contenders
If Paul Thomas Anderson (who is, don’t forget, still Oscar-less) doesn’t score elsewhere with One Battle, I feel like they will simply have to give him this one.
Otherwise, Zhao’s Hamnet looks unbeatable—adapting a beloved bestseller is, as we all know, rarely as easy as it seems.
Best Director 2026 Contenders
The director branch of the academy decides the nominees, and their votes tend to veer more towards international and arthouse than the other major categories. In fact, since 2009, the award has only gone to an American on three occasions—so don’t be surprised to see Zhao (who was born in China) joined by Trier (Norway) and the Palme d’Or winner Jafar Panahi (Iran), for It Was Just an Accident) in this year’s nominees.
Despite all that, Coogler is long overdue for a nomination, and Anderson is long overdue for a win—even if Hamnet takes the big one, it’s hard to see the Academy awarding Zhao for the second time and passing on Anderson again. This is PTA’s to lose.
Best Foreign Language 2026 Contenders
As mentioned above, it’s another strong year for international movies at the Oscars—a trend that’s become less of an anomaly since the Academy began diversifying in 2016, a decision that directly led to Parasite’s era-shifting win three years later.
Trier and Panahi will lead the pack here, with the Iranian probably a nose in front thanks to Sentimental’s likely wins in other categories (they’ll want to share the wealth). These two movies will probably be joined by The Secret Agent (a movie that’s lead actor, the handsome Narcos star Wagner Moura, even has a chance of his own nomination), and another Cannes gem, Sirât—a movie about a group of ravers in trucks crossing the Atlas Mountains that fans of William Friedkin’s Sorcerer will want to see.
